The country’s overall advertising expenditure (adex) is likely to be affected in the short term in the wake of the Competition Commission of India’s (CCI) probe into advertising firms.
CCI raid, which reportedly ended on Wednesday morning (March 19), with CEOs of the firm also being questioned for two days straight, focused on unearthing emails, pricing agreements, internal meeting records, and coordinated rate cards that suggested anti-competitive behavior.
With operations coming to a complete halt for many, the business hasn’t been usual.
The recent investigations into top ad firms (GroupM, Madison, IPG, Publicis, and dentsu) have caused massive disruption in the way the media buying ecosystem functions. Allegations of anti-competitive practices, if proven, could result in severe penalties— up to 10% of annual turnover— setting a strong precedent for transparency and fair play in advertising.
“The immediate impact is disruptive. Such investigations create uncertainty for clients, potentially delaying campaigns and affecting business continuity”, said a media executive.
Additionally, if penalties are imposed, agencies may pass on the financial burden to clients, leading to higher advertising costs. It also raises concerns about regulatory overreach— whether such scrutiny could deter global firms from investing in India’s advertising sector, added a media planner.
Read more: CCI raids at dentsu, GroupM, IPG, Madison, Publicis fuel unrest; stakeholders demand fair probe
“…any negative impact on adex would likely stem from reduced confidence among advertisers, potentially leading them to withhold spending amid uncertainty. Historically, similar investigations have led to temporary reductions in adex as the market adjusts to new compliance and transparency standards. For context, India’s advertising industry is expected to grow by 15% in 2025. Any impact would need to be assessed against this growth trajectory,” explained a media analyst.
The raids are the culmination of a months-long covert investigation into allegations that top ad agencies conspired to fix advertisement rates, eliminating fair discounts and rigging the market. The CCI had been silently gathering intelligence, monitoring irregularities, and waiting for the right moment to strike. The tip off which connected the dots from a GST probe at a leading media agency.
Executives of industry bodies Indian Broadcasting and Digital Foundation (IBDF), the Advertising Agencies Association of India (AAAI), and the Indian Society of Advertisers (ISA) were caught off guard as investigators swiftly sealed office premises, confiscated mobile phones, and began combing through emails, financial records, and internal communications.
Read more: CCI raids at top firms could leave media agencies grappling with massive trust deficit, feel experts
“I believe the immediate impact will be hesitation in spending and increased caution from both agencies and clients. Whenever there’s uncertainty at this scale, advertisers tend to slow down decision-making, reassess budgets, and push for stricter compliance in media buying.
Adex will likely see a short-term contraction as brands and agencies reevaluate procurement practices and financial governance. The biggest impact may be seen in traditional media, where high-value transactions and bulk media buys are more susceptible to scrutiny,” shared a media buyer.
Industry experts caution that ad spending on marquee properties like the Indian Premier League could also take a hit, potentially impacting up to 30-40% of deals.
IPL remains an indispensable property for advertisers and will kick off in two days (on March 22), at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata. The tournament has already secured 20% more sponsorship revenue compared to previous seasons. IPL adex is expected to rise by 15-20% this year, as per industry observers.
In fact, according to a recent report by the Integral Ad Science media measurement platform, IPL’s advertising revenue is expected between Rs 6,000 crore and Rs 7,000 crore. Team sponsorships are also at an all-time high; Punjab Kings has over 20 sponsors, Kolkata Knight Riders has 25 and Gujarat Titans has around 32 sponsors already on board.
IPL 2025 is more than just a sporting event—it’s a high-stakes marketing battleground. However, the timing of the CCI’s investigation could throw a wrench in the plans of some ad agencies and clients.
“…If things are suspended for a while longer and electronic gadgets and documents are not returned to the advertising agencies, IPL AdEx will be impacted by around 30- 40%, because many of the deals are done at the very last minute.
Even if the deals were secured way before, the servicing happens later. So as the matches start, the servicing will start happening which can suffer very badly,” shared a media planner, on condition of anonymity.
Another media executive added, “…immediate spending and properties like IPL will take a hit, the country’s overall ad spend is expected to remain unaffected. The agencies involved are major players with high-profile clients who understand the business dynamics and are unlikely to be deterred. Everyone is well aware of how price fixing operates.”